% ProbMis:  Find the probability of a misprediction
%   based on 20 means and standard deviations.
%
% Scott F. Smith
% Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
% Boise State University
% SFSmith@BoiseState.edu
%
% 09 February 2005

% Specify which distribution is correct (1 through 20)
CorrectDist = 20;

% Means and standard deviations
Means = [
0.25 
0.38 
0.74 
0.20 
0.39 
0.31 
0.29 
0.31 
1.50 
0.21 
0.37 
0.89 
0.34 
0.46 
0.45 
0.38 
0.75 
0.77 
1.02 
3.37
];
StDevs = [
0.05
0.06
0.17
0.03
0.09
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.56
0.05
0.06
0.22
0.04
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.13
0.22
0.41
0.93
];

% Take 10,000 samples of each of the 20 distributions
CorrectHits = 0;
SampVals = zeros(1,20);
for samp = 1:10000
  for distrib = 1:20
    SampVals(distrib) = Means(distrib) + randn*StDevs(distrib);
  end
  [MaxVal, MaxIndex] = max(SampVals);
  if MaxIndex == CorrectDist
    CorrectHits = CorrectHits + 1;
  end
end

MisPred = 1 - (CorrectHits/10000)